Yerevan's Skyline Makeover Stutters to a Halt

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Yerevan's Skyline Makeover Stutters to a Halt

There was a time when I looked out of my city centre apartment window on a clear day or a starry, starry night, the skyline was so dominated by Ararat and his little brother that I had to stop myself from shouting ‘hurrah – hurrah’ as I imagined them coming in two-by-two. But today, I have to crane my neck around a multitude of part constructed high-rise apartment buildings to remind myself that Ararat is still there.


Through the past five years, the Yerevan city authority has been infatuated with its real-estate development programme, which has not only led to the Northern Prospect’s ghostly commercial centre, but to dozens of apartment apparitions, as much as fifteen-floors high. They range from the prestigious in the city centre, to the not so prestigious on the city outskirts, and one of particular note, which is squeezed in behind Tigran Sarkissian’s Central Bank; a fifteen-storey monstrosity which twists like a corkscrew, leans like the tower of Pizza, and which has window and door apertures of various shapes and sizes splattered seemingly indiscriminately over what can only be described as a tangled mess of concrete and metal.


At the last count, in the southern half of the city which my window overlooks, more than thirty construction cranes were pounding away, twisting and twirling and upping and downing, in the rush to meet the five-year real-estate plan deadline in readiness for the tens of thousands of foreign investors who have been waiting patiently to storm the Republic.


During the daytime, the din simply faded into the city’s general hustle and bustle, but throughout the night the rattling and whirling of the cranes put the street dogs and their howling to shame. Lines of red warning lights swept eerily like UFO’s through the Yerevan sky, each fighting for air space, whilst spotlights cast their beams ominously up and down and round and round the soon-to-be prestigious ‘Euro-Remont’ habitats. But today, if any Yerevanite would care to stretch out an ear or two, he or she will be pleasantly surprised by the din, which is now thankfully noticeable by its absence. The hustle and bustle around Yerevan’s skyscraper skyline has all but stagnated to a halt.


In international investment terms, Armenia’s real-estate development programme has been unique in its entirety; Armenia’s custodians only permitted foreign investors to commit their hundreds of millions of dollars to the five-year construction programme, on the understanding that sales of the properties would be allowed only after the entire construction programme had been completed, and that would be done through a pre-determined two-year realisation period. That was in response to the massive demand, which has driven up property values in Armenia nearly to an impressive par with New York, London, or even Moscow.

Through the past year, 'Mortgage Brokers' and 'Estate Agents' have sprung up in Yerevan to give eager punters every chance to become proud owners of these prime properties, and not surprizingly, again monopolised by the same inner-circle cronies who have dominated the construction phase of this new real estate sector. The subprime craze that has recenty cost the U.S. and European economies hundreds of billions of dollars, is about to strike in Armenia, with inevitably the same effect - making the rich very much richer and creating even more devastation amongst the under-privileged.

The five-year construction period has now come to an end and Yerevan's city authorities have announced that their new real-estate wonder is now available for realisation.

But although many of the apartment buildings have been completed and have stood empty for several years, the latest constructions are still in process and need so much work to be done. Moreover, we are told that buyers are clambering in drones and pounding at the doors of the newly established estate agents to be part of the boom. So how can this halt in construction be explained?

Could it be that the tens of thousands of foreign investors have in fact changed their minds; or maybe there never were tens of thousands of foreign investors? Or could it be that the displacement of a group of tens of thousands of refugees has been delayed? Or could it be that the pressure that is being applied by the opposition and by the people the tyrants are meant to serve, and by nearly all of the international community, is now starting to have its effect, and funds are running low? Or maybe a combination of these?


See you ALL on the 1st August!!!

And Bring as many of your friends as you can muster!!!

 

 


Bruce Tasker's picture
Bruce Tasker – 1 year 32 weeks ago – promoted 1 year 32 weeks ago
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Bruce, not to mention...

Ani's picture

When the next earthquake comes (and let's hope it's really minor) how's that shoddy construction going to hold up?

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I am afraid you are right

Bruce Tasker's picture

I am afraid you are right!!

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I guess you can always speculate to Infinity

Vanasb's picture

The drive to speculation is characteristically human, so dwellers in a glass house can ill afford to throw stones. But let's for a moment speculate otherwise that an interruption of such a massive construction project could also be aimed at improving the negotiation terms in any future sales operation.

It only could be .... speculating, speculating !!!
Only those who have accurate, relevant and timely information will speculate correctly. The rest is just "crow croak". And in the midst of confluence of speculations in the marketplace a good investor/financial analyst is the one who can narrow down the range of correct speculation, by eliminating the "crow croaks".

Yerevan whether we like it or not is standing at the doorstep of becoming a center of financial capital, so its too late to speculate adversely at this specific juncture. Rather its about how the cake will be split amongst the oligarchs/businessmen.

Now what's really naive to think, is that the cake is somehow been usurped by a clan and will be split amongst its members. A person with less than a professional knowledge in the business structure of post soviet space will immediately realize elements of both "authority" and "opposition" equally distributed across the business landscape of that space. And Armenia is not an exception.

It might be high time to stop walking blind-folded popularizing slogans we don't really understand, nevermind critically analyze.

A proper wake up call is a call to work.

Its 6:00 am everyone must wake up .... there is work to be done.

Good Morning Everyone.

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Thank you Vanasb

Bruce Tasker's picture

Vanasb,

Again you have given me the opportunity to expound on the fundamental issues of this post, one being "the negotiation terms in any future sales operation".

The Yerevan Mayor insults the intelligence of normal people, when he expects them to believe that those behind this private 'Money Laundering' operation have for FIVE years been spending hundreds of millions of dollars constructing apartment buildings, on the understanding that they will not be sold until the entire program has been completed.

Any prudent investor will expect an 'Immediate' return from his investment, and will NOT wait five years before he starts to get his money back. Especially when one of the major investors is apparently Moscow's Mayor Lushkov, who has the opportunity to invest in any Russian construction project and have thousands queuing to buy before the foundations have even been laid. Why should he invest in an Armenian project and wait five years to start getting his money back? Unless, of course that the buildings have been built for a specific market?

Foreigners are not rushing to Armenia to invest in real estate (or business for that matter - read yesterday's Yerevan Times article: http://www.zhamanak.com/article/9902/) Even the Diaspora who previously bought apartments in Yerevan out of a sense of patriotism are now staying away.

So what is the specific market; why have these state-connected cronies built apartments for 25,000+ residents and held them back for this long? There must be a logical reason - and I for one will not be persuaded that it has been mere speculation.

BTW, it is interesting how Yerevan's residential real-estate is split in to three categories, and if anyone would like, we could look at that as well.

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You mean of course Dilijan?

Bruce Tasker's picture

Yerevan "whether we like it or not" is standing at the doorstep of becoming a center of financial capital.

More baloney - Serzh Sargsyan is increasingly isolating Armenia and jeopardizing good relations with almost the entire international community (except that he has been pampering up to Turkey with secret discussions) and we are to believe that Tigran Sarkissian's Armenia is to become "a center of financial capital"???

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From what I know the

From what I know the prerequisite for a financial center is assurances for stability and fare play.
None of this exist in Armenia. Your business can be taken to buncrapcy or forced to liquidate if let's say Sedrak Kocharyan ( Robert's son) doesn't like it. Examples are many, Paris Coffee, VivaCell, ArmenTel, Roayal Armenia Coffee, Mobile phone importers, Armenian Airlines. I selected business which were neutral to politics.

As for those apartments no sensible person will buy them. Buying a stolen product knowingly makes you no different from the thief. We all know that all those apartments were illegally built and are built on stolen land.
The only way to legalize them is to give the landowners big enough apartments in those buildings. I suppose 2-3 floors in each building should be sufficient. But well the bandits are too greedy for this, that's why they are called bandits.

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Imagine if they are ever occuppied?

Bruce Tasker's picture

Haig, you are right, the land has been stolen (as with everything else, from the Armenian people) and the bandits will not give anything in return, as you say, they are too greedy for that.

I have my own opinion of what these new apartments are for (see: http://www.khosq.com/en-us/article/2008/06/19/how_kochariansarksian_will...) and that program is going ahead to plan, although with delays, because Sargsyan (and now again together with Kocharian) has to re-assert his position before he can proceed.

Irrespective of that, has anybody cared to consider the chaos if these new apartments are ever eventually inhabited, together with the Jeeps that the new owners will inevitably own.

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Northern Prospect Coming Back to Life

Bruce Tasker's picture

Those who have been paying attention might have noticed how Yerevan's skyline has been on hold through most of the peak summer construction period.

A few of the dozens of cranes started to come back to life a couple of weeks ago, and there have been small signs of activity on one or two of the construction sites.

Today I went for a stroll to wallow in the rain (as we Brits like to do), and my wandering took me along the Northern Prospect, where I was not surprised to hear the construction coming back to life, after months of silence.

What does this mean? Firstly, that money has come back into the system, and secondly, there is renewed anticipation that there might at last be potential occupants for the thousands of apartments that have been newly built, but which have stood empty for the past five and more years.

Can anyone guess where those new occupants might be coming from, after Serzh's and Nalbandian's meetings in New York, or do you need me to repeat again what I have been trying to impress upon you for the past year?

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Doom mongering is easy and

Doom mongering is easy and it seems becoming a more and more popular pastime for some! Surely it would be better to put all this negative speak behind us and get our substantial potential to work. It is essential that we have growth in Yerevan and Armenia and that is surely helped by having substantial (quality ) housing available to the new incomers/returnees?
No nation ever grew from feeding on pessimism.

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